Working prototype · public data only · tariff & country-of-origin exposure

Sourcing Shift: what Mattel's country mix costs when the tariff stack moves.

The sourcing decisions Mattel is making this year set the tariff bill it carries next year. Sourcing Shift turns Mattel's own disclosed country mix and the live Section-301 schedule into one operator number, the annualized China-tariff exposure on its US import bill, and shows what each rebalancing move does to it.

Mattel has said the plan out loud: China was 50% of global toy production in 2024, under 40% in 2025, and its target is to take China under 15% of US imports by 2026 and under 10% by 2027. This page makes that plan a number you can push on. Pick a scenario: it loads the disclosed mix and the cited tariff stack, and reports the exposure, a colour band, and the moves that follow.

01 · The verdict

A scenario sets the China share of US imports and the tariff stack; the card reports the annualized exposure on Mattel's China-origin import bill, scored against its own margin scale.

One click loads a scenario. The mix and tariff rate are optional to fine-tune; open Adjust the scenario below.

Recommended moves

    Adjust the scenario: China share, tariff rate, pass-through optional · click to open

    Move any slider and the verdict above recomputes live. The presets reset all three.

    02 · The country mix

    Where the import bill comes from.

    Mattel's disclosed posture: China is being walked down while owned plants in Mexico and South-East Asia and a widening third-party base absorb the volume. The shares below are the active scenario; the non-China split is calibrated to Mattel's owned-plant footprint, visibly labelled.

    China-origin import bill (annualized)

    Tariff exposure on that bill

    Origin share of Mattel's US import bill, active scenario

    China share is the scenario input (disclosed). The non-China split (Mexico / SE-Asia owned plants / third-party rest-of-world) is synthetic, calibrated to Mattel's disclosed owned-plant countries (Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand; China leased) and to the "no single country >25% by 2027" target. It is not a Mattel-disclosed breakdown.

    03 · The brief

    What's real, what's modelled, and the limits.

    The model, the disclosed anchors, and honest limits click to expand

    The one calculation

    Everything on this page comes off one line you can redo on a napkin: exposure = (US import bill) × (China share of that bill) × (additional China tariff rate) × (1 − pass-through). The import bill is anchored to Mattel's disclosed scale; the China share and tariff rate are the scenario inputs; pass-through is a synthetic lever for "how much of the bill pricing and mitigation claw back."

    InputValue usedWhere it comes from
    US import bill (base)~$1.6BCalibrated, labelled. Mattel's FY2024 net sales were $5.380B at 50.8% gross margin, so COGS ≈ $2.65B; US is roughly two-thirds of sales, and not all COGS is imported finished goods. ~$1.6B is a deliberately conservative stand-in for the US-imported-product bill, sized to the disclosure, not a Mattel-reported number.
    China share of US importsscenario (0-55%)Disclosed. China <40% of global production in 2025; target <15% of US imports by 2026, <10% by 2027 (Q1 2025 call).
    Additional China tariff ratescenario (0-60%)Disclosed schedule. Section-301 List 4A adds 7.5% on toys (in force, survived the Feb-2026 IEEPA ruling); HTS 9503 base duty is Free. A temporary Section-122 10% sat on top into mid-2026, so the default 17.5% is the mid-2026 stack.
    Pass-throughscenario (0-100%)Synthetic lever. Mattel said it took US pricing actions in 2025; the recovered share is not separately disclosed, so this is a what-if, not a quote.

    Why exposure, not a margin forecast

    The page reports the tariff dollars at risk on the China-origin bill and bands it against Mattel's own scale (its FY2024 operating income was ~$694M, so a nine-figure tariff line is a real share of the P&L). It deliberately stops short of forecasting gross margin: that needs the internal cost build, the SKU-level origin map, and the real pass-through, which is the production extension, not the demo.

    Honest limits

    • The import bill is a calibrated stand-in. Mattel does not disclose a US-imported-product dollar figure; ~$1.6B is sized to FY2024 net sales / margin / US mix and labelled as synthetic everywhere it's used. Slide it implicitly by reading the exposure as a rate on whatever the true bill is.
    • "China share" mixes two disclosed metrics. Mattel quotes China both as a share of global production (50% in 2024, <40% in 2025) and as a share of US imports (<15% target 2026). This page models the US-import share, which is the one that drives the US tariff bill; the scenarios are labelled to that metric.
    • The non-China origin split is synthetic. Mattel discloses the owned-plant countries (Mexico, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand; China leased; Vietnam added in the FY2025 10-K) and a "no one country >25% by 2027" target, not a percentage breakdown. The Mexico / SE-Asia / rest-of-world shares here are calibrated to those anchors, not reported.
    • The tariff schedule is volatile. 2025-26 saw IEEPA "reciprocal" tariffs imposed and then struck down (SCOTUS, Feb 2026), with a temporary Section-122 duty layered on. Section-301's 7.5% on toys is the durable floor; the page lets you set the rate so it survives the next schedule change. Rates should be re-confirmed against the official USITC HTS and the Federal Register before any external use.
    • $270M → <$100M is two estimates, not one mitigation result. Mattel's Q1 2025 ~$270M exposure was built on a 145% China rate; the Q2 2025 <$100M figure followed de-escalation and is not the same scenario. The page shows them as reference markers, clearly dated, not as a clean before/after.

    Production shape

    • SKU-level origin map replaces the calibrated import bill and the synthetic country split with the real bill of materials and country-of-origin per SKU, so the exposure is the actual one, not a scale estimate.
    • Live tariff feed off the USITC HTS and Federal Register, re-pricing the stack as schedules change: the constant block in this page sits between marker comments so a refresh script can regenerate it in place.
    • Delivery: a static page like this plus an alert hook. No platform, no integration; IP transfers.

    04 · Sources & method

    Every disclosed number, every synthetic one.

    Updated 2026-06-14 · v1.0 · disclosed anchors as of Mattel FY2024/FY2025 10-K & Q1-Q2 2025 calls