Working prototypes · public data only · Mattel supply-chain tools
The supply calls you make this quarter set next quarter's service, penalties, and margin. Each tool takes one number off public filings or published rules, tells you where it stands, and names the move while there is still time to make it.
Eight small tools, all on public data or public rules. Start with the top three: a field book of your sources for the road, the outside costs that push toy margin around, and a demand forecast you can poke at any level. The rest are more of the same idea, further down.
How to read these
Each one is tuned to Mattel, not a peer average. A generic trip-wire would already be in a textbook. The work is fitting each read to Mattel's own history, so the number actually means something here.
Each one opens with the answer. The read is on screen when the page loads. Scenarios are a click, the knobs are optional. Built to be read, not configured.
Public data, every number traceable. SEC 10-K and earnings disclosures, the HTS/Section-301 tariff schedule, and public freight indices (Drewry, Freightos). Where a private input is needed, it shows up clearly labelled as an estimate, never a number the model pretends to know.
The lead time is the point. Inventory, sourcing, and freight all lock in before the margin event. Reading them early turns a markdown or a tariff hit into a call you can still make.
Start here
Vendor and factory profiles, phone-first
A pocket book of your sources: org chart, factory profile, multi-year production, and quality numbers, readable at arm's length in a plant. It runs off one list at the top of the file, so a non-engineer adds a factory by copying a block and changing values. Your PPT profiles drop in as PDFs.
Single file · EASY TO KEEP UP Open the field book → 02 · OUTSIDE COSTS · MARGINThe cost signals that move toy margin
The outside costs that push toy gross margin around, pulled from public primary sources: resin, ocean freight, US tariffs, and toy-sector filings. Each card carries a real figure, a trend, an "as of" date, and a source you can tap to check it yourself.
Public sources · TAP TO CHECK Open the comps → 03 · DEMAND · EVERY GRAINDemand at SKU, line, region, or total
SKU-level demand rolls up to line, region, and total. Nudge a scenario at any level, one SKU or the whole book, and watch the total forecast and its uncertainty move with you. A demand plan you can argue with, not just read.
Multi-grain · SCENARIOS LIVE Open the forecast →More prototypes
More examples of the pattern: take one number off public data, say where it stands, name the move. Three read the margin signals that show up before the P&L does; two sit on the day-to-day scorecard, the retailer penalty your fill rate controls and the peak order you commit months early.
Inventory running ahead of sales
Reads how far inventory has pulled ahead of Mattel's own sales history and scores the margin risk, tuned to Mattel's baseline: the signal that fired before the 2023 gross-margin trough.
Today · CLEAR Open the radar → 05 · FILL RATE · PENALTYRetailer on-time, in-full deductions
Reads a book of inbound PO lines against Walmart's published 90 / 98 / 95% goals and the 3% penalty, scores the deduction risk, and says whether on-time or in-full is the lever to pull first. The fine your fill rate controls, line by line.
Peak week · AT RISK Open the console → 06 · FORECAST · COMMITOrder quantity vs a long lead time
Runs one seasonal SKU through a Q4 demand band and the Asia lead time, lands the recommended order on load, and shows the cost of being wrong: stock out and lose the sale, or over-commit and mark it down. The planner's call, not the CFO's.
Hero SKU · BALANCED Open the simulator → 07 · SOURCING · TARIFFChina-origin tariff exposure
Sizes the tariff bill on Mattel's China-sourced import mix against the disclosed 50%→<15% rebalance, and prices what the next move off China is worth in basis points of operating income.
Today · WATCH · ~$106M Open the model → 08 · FREIGHT · MARGINOcean-freight margin exposure
Moves a public container-freight index against Mattel's Q3 holiday build and works out the landed-cost-to-gross-margin bridge. The freight bill is locked in months before the margin prints.
2021-scale shock · ACT Open the bridge →Prototype suite prepared for Mattel · data: SEC EDGAR (Mattel 10-K, earnings 8-K/calls), USITC HTS + Section-301 schedule, Drewry World Container Index / Freightos Baltic Index. Synthetic inputs are visibly labelled and calibrated to cited anchors. Jeff Pinto, data science / ML / operations analytics · github.com/bigbrownjeff.