Working prototype · public data only · per-issuer supply-chain early warning

Margin Radar — four issuers, each calibrated to its own history.

The supply decisions you make this quarter set next year's gross margin. Margin Radar turns each issuer's own public filings into operator lead time — quarters to adjust orders, pace promotions, and protect guidance, before the markdown reaches earnings.

Four public companies hit an inventory-driven margin event in 2022–23. A single off-the-shelf score would already be in the literature — the work is tuning the radar to each issuer's own operating history. Pick a company: the radar reloads with its real SEC-XBRL series and reports one operator-legible number — a 1–99 severity score, a colour band, and a forecast horizon — calibrated for that issuer.

01 · Where it stands now

—

The latest quarter on file, scored, with the operator moves that follow from the band.

—

—

—

—

—

—

Recommended moves

    Compare all four issuers — how each is calibrated click to expand

    Each row is proof that the calibration differs by company — the data-coverage window the radar learned from, the documented margin event it would have caught, how far ahead it caught it, and the peak severity score it would have hit. Click any row to load that company above.

    IssuerData coverageDocumented event caughtLead timePeak severity

    Coverage runs from ~9 years (Funko, IPO Nov 2017) to ~17 years (Mattel, Hasbro, VF Corp). Each issuer is tuned to its own operating history — which is why a single off-the-shelf score can't do this. The lead time and peak severity are what that per-issuer calibration buys.

    02 · The replay

    No hindsight — only what was knowable then.

    —

    —

    —

    —

    —

    —

    —

    —

    03 · The brief

    What production looks like.

    Per-issuer calibration, what each issuer caught, and honest limits click to expand

    Why per-issuer, not one universal score

    The radar does not run a single composite across all four names. It reads each company against its own operating history, then surfaces one operator number — a 1–99 severity score and a colour band — tuned to what an early inventory build looks like for that issuer. That per-issuer tuning is the model.

    IssuerWhat the radar watchesWhat it caught (public facts)
    Mattelinventory build vs salesInventory peaked 2022Q3 ($1,083.8M); the radar flagged the build ahead of the 2023Q1 gross-margin trough of 40.0% (−640bp YoY). A blunt universal cut would mis-fire on Mattel's normal Q3 seasonality.
    Hasbroinventory-dollar surge (lean baseline)Hasbro runs structurally lean and its 52/53-week calendar leaves ratio gaps in 2022, so the radar reads the inventory-dollar build: ~$500M to $867.5M into 2022Q2 (+74% YoY), ahead of 2022Q3 destocking and the eOne writedown.
    Funkoinventory outrunning revenueFor a hyper-growth small-cap whose sales were still rising, the radar reads inventory pulling away from revenue: inventory +161% vs revenue +63% YoY in 2022Q1 — a full year before the 2023Q1 gross-margin collapse to 19.7% and the >$30M landfill destruction.
    VF Corpinventory-dollar surge + Vans/wholesaleThe blended company ratio masks segment concentration, so the radar reads VF's inventory-dollar surge: ~$1.4B to a $2,591.9M peak in 2022Q4 (~+83%), well before the Oct-2023 dividend cut and Vans-led revenue decline.

    Bands: green / CLEAR (severity 1–33) · amber / WATCH (34–66) · red / ACT (67–99). Each issuer's bands are calibrated to its own history, not fitted to the outcome.

    Production shape

    • Weekly auto-refresh off the SEC XBRL company-concept API as 10-Qs land, re-tuning each issuer's calibration from its own updated history. The data array and calibration constants in this page sit between literal marker comments so an external script can regenerate them in place.
    • Internal extensions — SKU-level sell-through, open-order aging, channel weeks-of-supply — replace each quarterly public proxy with a weekly internal signal, and let the segment routing (Vans/wholesale for VF) run on real channel data rather than disclosed commentary.
    • Delivery: a static page like this plus an alert hook (email/Slack). No platform, no subscription; IP transfers.

    Honest limits

    • No 25-year series is claimed. Every figure is post-2009 SEC XBRL (the XBRL floor); Funko only IPO'd in Nov 2017, so it has ~9 years, not 25. Macrotrends/pre-2009 was paywalled (HTTP 402) during compilation and was not used — see the per-company coverage line in the replay.
    • Reporting lag: the scrubber moves at fiscal-quarter granularity; each 10-Q is public ~3–4 weeks after quarter close, which trims the lead time by about a month, not by quarters.
    • Non-calendar fiscal years (Hasbro, VF Corp) leave gaps in the blended inventory-to-sales view in recent years — which is exactly why the radar reads an inventory-dollar build for those two rather than the blended ratio.
    • Flagged-unreliable cells excluded from calibration: VFC 2011Q3 (XBRL period collision), VFC GM before FY2020, HAS GM 2018Q2–Q3 (transitional COGS basis).
    • The VF segment signal is described, not computed here. The page shows VF's consolidated inventory surge; the Vans/wholesale split needs segment-level XBRL the demo does not parse, and is a production extension.

    04 · Sources

    Every series, every event.

    Updated 2026-06-14 · v1.3 · latest data quarter data as of 2026Q1